I just received a report from Common Cents regarding the fact that nearly 3000 community banks (nearly 40% of all banks) are at risk for failure due to their heavy weight in commercial real estate loans.
While Eugene is small compared to cities like Portland and Seattle, we are known for our small banks and in the past their appetite for commercial real estate. Several of our local community banks made large loans in other cities like Bend, Redmond, and even Florence and now are seeing those loans become delinquent and head to foreclosure and that has put those banks on the ropes.
They forecast that banks will suffer their worst losses well after 2010, and well after the Treasury’s bailout of TARP funds expires. Common Cents said “The banks that are on the front lines of small-business lending are about to get hit by a tidal wave of commercial-loan failures,” per Elizabeth Warren, a law Professor at Harvard University who heads a congressional oversight panel.
Most loans were made when real estate values were skyrocketing, lenders were free with their money, and their debt coverage ratios and underwriting guidelines were loose.
The true percentage of commercial loans that are in default in Lane County is difficult to track because most banks do not make that information public. We usually hear about it by word of mouth, or by seeing no activity in a development, or read about it in our local newspaper.
They predict and I agree that more than 40 percent, and now, nearly half of the loans coming due are “underwater”, making refinancing almost impossible.
It will become harder for even strong borrowers to refinance in the future. Property values have declined and most likely will continue to decline this year, banks are restricting credit, have tightened underwriting guidelines, and require more cash demands from borrowers to pay any shortages. That is starting to squeeze the average person who needs to refinance.
Many people want to believe that 2010 is our year of change and the market will improve. I don’t believe that we have seen even the tip of the iceberg for foreclosures for commercial real estate in Lane County.
Recent Comments